Comal ISD homeowners face a Nov. 3 vote on $567 million in bonds after the district’s tax base rose 2.5% in 2024, below the roughly 7% annual growth a model needs to hold the 35-cent debt rate.
By Comal.News Schools Desk · Source-linked local reporting
4 min read
Analysis
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Illustration: A balance scale pairs school projects with property values, representing the bond plan’s dependence on tax-base growth.Original editorial illustration; not a photograph and does not depict the reported event or an exact property.Comal.News Visual Desk · Original illustration · Source ↗ · Comal.News original illustration ↗
Comal ISD’s taxable property base rose 2.5% in 2024, and voters will decide Nov. 3 on two bond propositions totaling $567 million.
At 5% annual growth, the modeled debt rate reaches 38.1 cents by 2030-31, about $31 more a year per $100,000 of taxable value than the 35-cent starting rate. That is a conditional illustration for homeowners, not a prediction of their bills.
The number to watch
Comal ISD’s adopted 2026-27 debt-service rate is 35 cents per $100 of taxable value. One cent per $100 means $30 a year on a home with $300,000 of taxable value. Debt service is the mortgage-payment side of school borrowing; this analysis concerns that part of the tax rate.
The whole bond, financially, is a bet on one number: growth in the taxable property base. In the Comal.News model, about 7% annual growth keeps the rate near 35 cents while paying for both propositions. At 7% growth, the modeled rate is 34.7 cents in 2030-31. That is close to today’s rate, rather than a guarantee that every homeowner’s bill stays level.
Comal ISD’s taxable-value growth, 2017–2025: above the roughly 7% model threshold in most years, but not all
Taxable-value growth
About 7%: model threshold
Comal ISD’s taxable-value growth, 2017–2025: above the roughly 7% model threshold in most years, but not all
Year
Taxable-value growth
2017
9.4%
2018
7.9%
2019
10.3%
2020
11.3%
2021
14.4%
2022
5.4%
2023
21.8%
2024
2.5%
2025
8.5%
About 7%: model threshold: 7%
Historical growth is not a forecast. Values are from a Comal.News calculation using district records.
The history shows why that threshold matters. The district’s taxable value grew 2.5% in 2024, then 8.5% in 2025 in the Comal.News calculation. The district also says taxable values fell in 2011 and 2012 and that it raised the debt rate in response. Neither episode tells voters how fast the base will grow after this election.
Walk the growth rate down
OK, so what if growth is slower? At 3% a year, the modeled rate reaches 42 cents by 2030-31. With a flat taxable base, it reaches about 49 cents. At 10% growth, the modeled rate falls to about 30 cents. The table below shows the corresponding annual cost differences.
Modeled Comal ISD debt rate by annual taxable-value growth, 2026-27 through 2030-31
10% growth
7% growth
5% growth
3% growth
Flat base
Current rate: 35 cents
Modeled Comal ISD debt rate by annual taxable-value growth, 2026-27 through 2030-31
Fiscal year
10% growth
7% growth
5% growth
3% growth
Flat base
2026-27
34.4¢
35.3¢
36¢
36.7¢
37.8¢
2027-28
32.9¢
34.7¢
36.1¢
37.5¢
39.8¢
2028-29
32.1¢
34.8¢
36.9¢
39¢
42.7¢
2029-30
31.2¢
34.8¢
37.6¢
40.6¢
45.7¢
2030-31
30.2¢
34.7¢
38.1¢
42¢
48.7¢
Current rate: 35 cents: 35¢
Comal.News scenarios assume both propositions are sold in five equal annual installments at 5% interest. These are sensitivity tests, not forecasts or district rate proposals.
On a home with $300,000 of taxable value, the 5% growth case would cost about $93 more a year on the debt side than the 35-cent starting rate. The table uses the taxable-value amount in the opening rate comparison. It does not include changes in an individual home’s taxable value or exemptions.
Comal.News modeled 2030-31 debt rates and annual difference from 35 cents
Annual base growth
Debt rate per $100
Annual difference
10%
30.2¢
$48 less
7%
34.7¢
$3 less
5%
38.1¢
$31 more
3%
42.0¢
$70 more
Flat
48.7¢
$137 more
Rounded from the Comal.News model. Annual differences use the taxable value in the opening rate comparison, not market price.
What the model assumes
The model starts with the district’s audited 2025 taxable base and assumes both Proposition A and Proposition B are sold in five equal annual installments at 5% interest. Actual bond-sale timing, borrowing costs, new construction, later taxable values and the debt-service fund balance could change the rate needed. Its household examples do not describe homesteads whose school taxes are frozen under an over-65 exemption.
Proposition A asks for $539.955 million for facilities, land and buses. Proposition B asks for $27.045 million for technology. The district says the projects can be funded at its existing debt rate. Its bond FAQ also says the ballot must state “THIS IS A PROPERTY TAX INCREASE.” A projected level rate and that required ballot wording address different questions.
The next records
Early voting runs Oct. 19–30, and Election Day is Nov. 3. Voters can check the district’s voting information for dates and its proposition pages for the proposed projects. After the result, the useful financial records will be updated taxable-value estimates and, if bonds are authorized, the amounts, terms and timing of actual sales. Those records will show how closely the real financing follows this model.
From the source record
Comal.News analysis of district financial recordsAbout 7% annual growth holds the modeled debt rate near 35 cents
With both propositions sold in five equal annual installments, the modeled 2030-31 rate is 34.7 cents at 7% growth, 38.1 cents at 5% and 48.7 cents with a flat taxable base.
